Expect to pay $5,800-$9,500 for a full AC replacement in East Texas. The installer matters more than the brand on the box, and the sizing calculation matters more than both. Get three quotes from contractors who do Manual J load calculations and pull permits. Skip anyone who eyeballs tonnage or quotes without checking your ductwork.
At a glance
- Replacement range: $5,800-$9,500 for a properly sized, permitted install in Liberty, Chambers, or Harris County.
- Sizing rule: 1 ton per 600-700 sq ft (post-2000 homes), 1 ton per 400-500 sq ft (older pier-and-beam).
- Efficiency sweet spot: 15-16 SEER2. Saves meaningful money without a 20-year payback.
- Brand is secondary. Carrier, Trane, Goodman, Rheem all hold up when installed correctly.
- Heat pumps add $400-900 over AC-only and qualify for a 30% federal tax credit up to $2,000.
- A maintained system lasts 15-18 years. A neglected one dies at 8-12.
Right-sizing: why Manual J is non-negotiable
Oversized units short-cycle. The system cools air fast, shuts off before removing humidity, and you end up with a cold, clammy house that feels like a basement. Compressors wear out early from the constant on-off cycling. Your Entergy bill climbs for equipment that is actively making you uncomfortable.
Undersized is just as bad. A 2.5-ton unit in an 1,800 sq ft slab home in Mont Belvieu with west-facing windows will run nonstop from June through August and never cool below 76 at 3 PM.
Manual J is the engineering protocol that accounts for square footage, insulation, windows, roof color, attic ventilation, occupancy, and local climate data. Takes a trained tech about 90 minutes. The contractor who says "I have been doing this thirty years, I can eyeball it" is guessing with your money.
| Home size | Typical tonnage | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| 1,600-1,800 sq ft | 2.5-3 tons | Most common in our area |
| 2,200-2,400 sq ft | 3.5-4 tons | Two-story homes, larger slabs |
| Older pier-and-beam | Add 20-40% | Original windows and poor insulation increase load significantly |
| Manufactured homes | Varies widely | Envelope quality matters more than square footage |
Get the Manual J report in writing. It should show insulation R-values, window U-factors, and infiltration rates. A quote with just a tonnage number and no backup should go in the trash.
SEER2 comparison: where the money actually goes
SEER2 replaced SEER in 2023. Minimum legal in Texas is 14.3. Higher ratings mean lower bills, but the upfront jump gets steep past 16.
| SEER2 rating | Est. annual cooling cost (2,000 sq ft) | Upfront premium over 14 | Payback period |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14 (minimum) | ~$950 | Baseline | -- |
| 16 | ~$670 | $800-$1,400 | ~5-7 years |
| 18 | ~$530 | $2,000-$3,200 | ~10-14 years |
| 20+ | ~$450 | $5,000+ | 20+ years |
16 SEER2 saves about $280/yr over 14 SEER2 on a typical East Texas home. That is the sweet spot for most homeowners. The 20+ SEER2 units use variable-speed compressors that add complexity and more expensive repairs down the road.
One thing contractors skip: SEER2 ratings are lab conditions. A 16 SEER2 system with leaky ducts and wrong refrigerant charge performs like a 13. Installation quality determines real-world efficiency.
Brand comparison: what you are actually paying for
Brand matters less than you think. Most compressors come from the same three manufacturers regardless of the name on the cabinet.
| Tier | Brands | Premium over budget | Factory warranty | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Premium | Carrier, Trane, Lennox | $1,200-$2,000 | 10 yr parts | Heavier cabinet steel, stricter dealer requirements |
| Mid-range | Bryant, American Standard | $600-$1,200 | 10 yr parts | Same parent companies as premium (Carrier/Trane) |
| Value | Goodman, Rheem, Ruud | Baseline | 5-7 yr parts | Same compressors in many cases, strong local parts networks |
All six brands have units running fine after 15 years in our climate. All six also have units that failed at year six from bad installs. Do not eliminate a contractor because they propose Goodman instead of Trane. Ask about their installation process instead.
The questions that matter more than brand: Are you doing Manual J sizing? Will you pull permits? Do you pressure-test the lineset? What is your process for checking refrigerant charge, superheat and subcooling numbers or just topping it off? Will you measure temperature drop across the coil after startup?
Contractors who answer those questions specifically install systems that last. The ones who just talk brand names are selling you a sticker.
Avoid off-brand imports sold online and any brand without a parts distributor within driving distance of your county. If your compressor fails at year eight, you need a supplier who stocks parts and can get them to Liberty County within a day.
Heat pump vs. AC-only
A heat pump is an AC that runs in reverse for winter heating. In East Texas, where hard freezes last a few days and most winter nights sit in the 40s, modern heat pumps handle the full season.
| Factor | AC-only | Heat pump |
|---|---|---|
| Install cost (3-ton, 15 SEER2) | $5,800-$7,400 | $6,200-$8,100 |
| Premium | -- | $400-$900 |
| Federal tax credit (30% ITC) | None | Up to $2,000 |
| Best if you heat with | Natural gas furnace | Electric coils, propane, or space heaters |
If you already have reliable natural gas heat, standard AC is fine. Natural gas is cheaper per BTU than electricity in most of Entergy and CenterPoint territory.
If you heat with electric resistance coils (common in manufactured homes and older construction), propane, or space heaters, the heat pump pays back its premium in one to three winters. Electric resistance costs about $140 per million BTUs. A heat pump delivers the same heat for $45-65 per million BTUs because it moves heat rather than generating it.
The federal 30% tax credit up to $2,000 applies only to heat pumps, not standard AC. If you are replacing your system anyway, the credit alone covers most of the upfront cost difference.
Ductwork and upgrades worth the money
Leaky ducts waste 20-40% of your cooling. Most East Texas attic ductwork in pre-2000 homes leaks 25-35% of conditioned air into the attic.
| Upgrade | Cost | Payback | Notes |
|---|---|---|---|
| Duct sealing (mastic, not tape) | $600-$1,400 | 2-4 years | Should be included in any replacement where ducts are accessible |
| 4-inch media filter cabinet | $400-$700 | Ongoing | Catches more particles, lasts 3-6 months per filter |
| Annual professional maintenance | $95-$180/yr | Immediate | Extends system life 3-5 years, prevents 70% of common failures |
Contractors have no incentive to recommend duct sealing. It is hot attic work that does not increase their equipment sale. You have to ask for it. Get "seal all joints, boots, and seams" in writing.
Maintenance that extends system life
Change your filter every 30-45 days. Schedule professional maintenance in March, before the heat hits and every HVAC company is booked with emergency calls.
A clogged filter restricts airflow. Low airflow freezes the indoor coil. A frozen coil floods the air handler, destroys the blower motor, and damages your ceiling. A $4 filter prevents a $1,200 repair. Set a phone reminder. Buy filters in bulk. If you have pets or live in a dusty area near Dayton or Anahuac, change every three weeks.
Annual professional maintenance ($95-$180) covers outdoor coil cleaning, refrigerant charge check, electrical connections, capacitor testing, temperature drop measurement, and condensate drain inspection. Schedule in March. A weak capacitor caught in March is a $15 part. That same capacitor failing in July is an emergency call, a weekend wait, and a sweltering house.
Systems with annual maintenance and clean filters: 15-18 years. Systems that get ignored: 8-12 years. Over a decade, that is roughly $6,000 in lifespan difference for about $2,500 in total maintenance cost.
What a good quote looks like vs. a bad one
| Element | Good quote | Bad quote |
|---|---|---|
| Sizing | Manual J report attached with inputs | "Same tonnage as your old unit" |
| Equipment | Specific model numbers for condenser, air handler, thermostat | Brand name and tonnage only |
| Scope | Lists duct inspection, mastic sealing, lineset pressure test, permit, startup verification, airflow check at 400 CFM/ton | "Install 3-ton system" |
| Permits | Included ($75-$200) | "Not required for replacements" (false in Liberty, Chambers, Harris) |
| Warranty | Equipment and labor terms listed separately | Vague or verbal |
| Format | Multiple pages with line items | One page |
Red flags
- No Manual J load calculation. Sizing by eyeball is guessing with your money.
- No permits. If they are avoiding inspection, they are planning work that would not pass.
- Quote expires in 24 hours. Pressure tactic. Legitimate quotes hold for 30 days.
- Price under $5,000 for a complete system. Used equipment, skipped permits, or upsells coming.
- They can start tomorrow. Good contractors are booked 2-4 weeks out during spring and summer.
- Lead with financing over equipment. "Only $89/month" means they are selling a payment plan, not an HVAC system.
- No ductwork inspection. Quoting a system without checking ducts is like prescribing glasses without an eye exam.
Before-you-call checklist
- Check the data plate on your outdoor unit for manufacture date and model number
- Note your home's square footage and whether you have gas or electric heat
- Identify rooms that are always too hot or too cold
- Note when ductwork was last inspected or sealed
Contractor screening checklist
- Ask: Do you do Manual J load calculations on every install?
- Ask: Will you pull permits with the county?
- Ask: How do you verify refrigerant charge (superheat and subcooling, or just top it off)?
- Ask: What is your ductwork inspection process?
- Request three references from jobs completed in the last six months
- Get at least three quotes. Throw out any missing model numbers or written scope.
The right target for most East Texas homes
- 15-16 SEER2 heat pump (or standard AC if you have natural gas heat)
- Sized via Manual J. Probably 2.5-4 tons depending on your home.
- Any major brand with local parts support: Carrier, Trane, Lennox, Goodman, Rheem
- Duct sealing included where accessible
- 4-inch media filter cabinet
- Permits pulled and inspected
- Total: $6,500-$8,500 for most residential installs
That system, installed correctly and maintained annually, will cool your house for 15 years through every humid July and whatever winter surprises come next. The difference between a good install and a mediocre one is not the sticker on the cabinet. It is whether the contractor did the load calculation, sealed the ducts, verified the charge, and pulled the permit.